Monday, September 26, 2005

A few observations from the Pre-Flop charts...

1) Obviously there was a big assumption in this calculation: no one folds. That is, of course, ridiculous. In fact, if your opponent has T3 you'll probably never have to beat his hand to actually win (whereas if he has AA, good luck getting him to fold). So the fact that you usually don't have to beat the hands at the bottom of the list to win probably changes the rankings. However, this seemed like a good spot to begin, and hopefully I can learn something from it.

2) As expected, suited connectors are clearly more valuable in a ten-handed game than a two-handed game.

3) Pairs are clearly more valuable in a two-handed game than a ten-handed game.

4) I may be playing too loose in my home game. I usually play a five-handed game. If I want to be in one pot on average per round of play (this seems reasonable to me), I should be playing cards only from the top 20% of the list. So I should probably consider not playing K9, A3s, or A8 anymore. Well, since position is important I should probably play only top 5% early position and maybe top 30-35% late position. Playing K9 in the small blind with a bunch of callers behind me is not looking so smart right now however...

5) 50 million hands may not have been enough to get the exact ordering in this question. Notice that a pair of 2s are actually ranked above a pair of 3s in the ten-handed game. If you refer to the percentages, they have almost exactly the same probability of winning (to all the decimals I calculated). I'm sure if I let the program run longer, this ordering would flip.

6) I'm curious to see the other games I've left out (three-handed game, four-handed game, etc). I'm going to turn the computer back on & see if I can't get lists for all games from two-handed to twelve-handed (this may take a while!)

7) I think my next simulation will be to fold weak hands and see how much the ordering changes in this list.

Sunday, September 25, 2005

Pre-Flop Rankings with Winning Percentages

This table was generated by dealing over 50 million games of Texas Hold 'Em Poker. No player folded, and the winner's hand was tabulated. The 169 hands were then sorted by winning percentage. It's the same as the previous table, except this one also includes the winning percentage. (Ties are not recorded.)

Please let me know if you have any questions regarding this table.

Table of Pre-Flop Hand Rankings Assuming All Players Show
2 Handed Table5 Handed Table6 Handed Table7 Handed Table10 Handed Table
HandWin %HandWin %HandWin %HandWin %HandWin %
Top
5%
of
Hands
AA
84.6%
AA
55.5%
AA
48.8%
AA
43.2%
AA
30.9%
KK
82.1%
KK
49.4%
KK
42.6%
KK
37.1%
KK
25.8%
QQ
80%
QQ
44.6%
QQ
37.8%
QQ
32.4%
QQ
21.9%
JJ
77.5%
JJ
40%
JJ
33.3%
JJ
28.2%
AKs
19.8%
TT
74.9%
TT
36%
AKs
30.2%
AKs
26.8%
JJ
18.9%
99
71.8%
AKs
34.5%
TT
29.6%
AQs
24.9%
AQs
18.3%
88
68.8%
AQs
32.7%
AQs
28.3%
TT
24.8%
KQs
17.7%
AKs
65.8%
99
32.3%
KQs
27.4%
KQs
24.2%
AJs
17.1%
77
65.6%
KQs
31.6%
AK
27%
AK
23.5%
TT
16.6%
AQs
65.1%
AK
31.4%
AJs
26.6%
AJs
23.4%
KJs
16.6%
AJs
64.5%
AJs
31.1%
99
26.3%
KJs
22.8%
AK
16.3%
QJs
22.2%
QJs
16.1%
5% - 10%
of
Hands
AK
64.1%
KJs
30.1%
KJs
25.9%
99
22.1%
ATs
16.1%
ATs
63.5%
ATs
29.6%
QJs
25.3%
ATs
22%
KTs
15.7%
AQ
63.2%
AQ
29.4%
ATs
25.2%
KTs
21.6%
QTs
15.5%
AJ
62.6%
QJs
29.2%
AQ
24.9%
AQ
21.4%
JTs
15.3%
66
62.5%
88
29.1%
KTs
24.7%
QTs
21.2%
99
15.2%
KQs
62.2%
KTs
28.7%
QTs
24.1%
JTs
20.8%
AQ
14.6%
AT
61.5%
QTs
28.1%
KQ
23.8%
KQ
20.5%
A9s
14.2%
KJs
61.5%
KQ
27.9%
JTs
23.7%
88
20%
88
14.1%
A9s
61.4%
AJ
27.6%
88
23.7%
AJ
19.7%
KQ
14%
JTs
27.4%
AJ
23.1%
K9s
13.8%
T9s
13.7%
10% - 15%
of
Hands
KTs
60.9%
A9s
26.9%
A9s
22.6%
A9s
19.6%
J9s
13.6%
A8s
60.4%
KJ
26.7%
KJ
22.4%
KJ
19.2%
A8s
13.5%
KJ
59.4%
77
26.5%
K9s
21.9%
K9s
19.1%
Q9s
13.5%
A9
59.4%
AT
26%
QJ
21.7%
A8s
18.7%
77
13.3%
55
59.3%
K9s
25.8%
AT
21.5%
Q9s
18.6%
AJ
13.2%
A7s
59.3%
A8s
25.6%
A8s
21.5%
J9s
18.6%
A5s
13%
KQ
59.3%
QJ
25.6%
77
21.5%
QJ
18.5%
A7s
12.9%
K9s
59%
Q9s
25.3%
Q9s
21.5%
T9s
18.5%
KJ
12.9%
QJs
58.9%
J9s
21.3%
AT
18.3%
A4s
12.8%
T9s
21.2%
77
18.2%
A3s
12.7%
66
12.7%
15% - 20%
of
Hands
KT
58.7%
KT
25.1%
KT
21%
A7s
17.9%
QJ
12.5%
QTs
58.5%
J9s
25%
A7s
20.6%
KT
17.9%
A6s
12.5%
A8
58.3%
T9s
24.7%
QT
20.6%
A5s
17.7%
A2s
12.5%
A6s
58%
QT
24.6%
A5s
20.3%
QT
17.5%
T8s
12.5%
A5s
57.8%
A7s
24.6%
JT
20.2%
K8s
17.3%
K8s
12.4%
A7
57%
66
24.1%
K8s
20%
JT
17.3%
98s
12.3%
K8s
56.9%
A5s
24.1%
A4s
19.8%
A4s
17.3%
J8s
12.1%
A4s
56.9%
JT
24%
A6s
19.8%
A6s
17.2%
Q8s
12.1%
Q9s
56.9%
K8s
23.6%
66
19.7%
A3s
17.1%
55
12%
K9
56.5%
A6s
23.6%
A3s
19.5%
T8s
17%
AT
12%
A4s
23.5%
44
11.9%
Q8s
23.1%
20% - 25%
of
Hands
QJ
56.2%
A3s
23%
T8s
19.4%
66
16.9%
KT
11.9%
QT
56.2%
A9
23%
Q8s
19.4%
A2s
16.9%
K7s
11.9%
A3s
56.2%
T8s
22.9%
A2s
19.3%
Q8s
16.8%
22
11.9%
JTs
56%
K7s
22.8%
J8s
19.3%
J8s
16.8%
33
11.9%
44
55.9%
J8s
22.8%
K7s
19.1%
98s
16.7%
QT
11.8%
K7s
55.9%
A2s
22.7%
98s
19.1%
K7s
16.6%
JT
11.7%
A2s
55.7%
98s
22.4%
A9
18.7%
K6s
15.9%
87s
11.7%
A6
55.7%
K9
22.1%
K6s
18.4%
55
15.7%
K6s
11.5%
55
22%
55
18.2%
87s
15.6%
97s
11.5%
K6s
21.9%
K9
18%
A9
15.6%
K5s
11.3%
K5s
17.9%
97s
15.5%
76s
11.2%
87s
17.8%
K5s
15.5%
T7s
15.3%
Q7s
15.3%
25% - 30%
of
Hands
A5
55.4%
A8
21.8%
97s
17.7%
K4s
15.1%
T7s
11.1%
Q8s
54.8%
Q9
21.5%
Q7s
17.7%
J7s
15.1%
K4s
11.1%
K6s
54.7%
J9
21.4%
Q9
17.7%
K9
15.1%
K3s
11%
K8
54.5%
K5s
21.3%
J9
17.6%
44
15%
K2s
11%
A4
54.4%
T9
21.2%
T7s
17.6%
K3s
14.9%
86s
11%
Q9
54.3%
Q7s
21.1%
T9
17.6%
T9
14.9%
Q7s
10.9%
J9s
54.3%
97s
20.9%
A8
17.6%
Q9
14.8%
65s
10.9%
K5s
53.8%
T7s
20.9%
K4s
17.5%
J9
14.8%
J7s
10.9%
J7s
20.8%
J7s
17.4%
54s
10.7%
87s
20.8%
75s
10.6%
K4s
20.7%
Q6s
10.5%
96s
10.4%
Q5s
10.3%
64s
10.2%
Q4s
10.2%
Q3s
10.1%
30% - 35%
of
Hands
A3
53.7%
A7
20.6%
K3s
17.2%
K2s
14.8%
53s
10.1%
JT
53.4%
Q6s
20.4%
Q6s
17%
76s
14.7%
T9
10.1%
K7
53.3%
K3s
20.3%
44
17%
Q6s
14.7%
Q2s
10.1%
Q7s
52.8%
44
20.2%
K2s
16.9%
86s
14.6%
T6s
10%
K4s
52.8%
A5
20%
76s
16.7%
A8
14.5%
A9
9.9%
J8s
52.7%
K2s
20%
86s
16.6%
33
14.4%
85s
9.9%
33
52.7%
Q5s
19.8%
Q5s
16.5%
Q5s
14.3%
J6s
9.8%
A2
52.6%
K8
19.8%
A7
16.5%
65s
14.1%
J9
9.8%
T9s
52.2%
76s
19.5%
96s
16.1%
96s
14%
K9
9.7%
A5
16.1%
22
14%
Q4s
16.1%
Q4s
14%
33
16.1%
75s
13.9%
T6s
13.8%
Q3s
13.8%
35% - 40%
of
Hands
K6
52.2%
A6
19.5%
T6s
15.9%
J6s
13.7%
J5s
9.6%
K3s
52.1%
86s
19.5%
K8
15.9%
54s
13.7%
43s
9.6%
Q8
52.1%
A4
19.4%
65s
15.9%
A7
13.7%
74s
9.6%
Q6s
51.9%
Q4s
19.2%
Q3s
15.9%
Q2s
13.6%
Q9
9.5%
J9
51.9%
Q8
19.2%
J6s
15.8%
A5
13.4%
J4s
9.5%
K2s
51.5%
T8
19.2%
75s
15.7%
J5s
13.4%
J3s
9.4%
K5
51.1%
96s
19.1%
T8
15.7%
64s
13.3%
95s
9.3%
Q5s
51%
J6s
19%
A4
15.7%
85s
13.3%
J2s
9.3%
J7s
50.8%
T8
13.2%
63s
9.3%
T8s
50.6%
A8
9.2%
52s
9.1%
T5s
9%
42s
9%
40% - 45%
of
Hands
Q7
50.1%
J8
19%
A6
15.6%
K8
13.2%
T4s
8.9%
J8
50%
T6s
19%
Q2s
15.6%
J4s
13.1%
84s
8.9%
K4
50%
A3
18.8%
J5s
15.5%
A4
13%
T3s
8.9%
Q4s
49.9%
98
18.8%
Q8
15.5%
98
13%
T2s
8.8%
T9
49.3%
Q3s
18.8%
J8
15.5%
53s
13%
98
8.7%
Q3s
49.2%
33
18.8%
98
15.4%
A6
12.9%
T8
8.7%
K3
49.2%
K7
18.7%
54s
15.4%
J3s
12.9%
32s
8.6%
J5s
18.5%
22
15.3%
Q8
12.8%
A5
8.6%
65s
18.4%
73s
8.6%
75s
18.3%
45% - 50%
of
Hands
22
49.2%
Q2s
18.3%
A3
15.3%
J8
12.8%
A7
8.5%
Q6
49.1%
A2
18.1%
85s
15.1%
A3
12.8%
94s
8.5%
T7s
49.1%
J4s
18%
J4s
15.1%
95s
12.7%
A4
8.4%
J6s
48.7%
K6
17.8%
K7
15%
J2s
12.7%
93s
8.4%
98s
48.6%
85s
17.8%
64s
14.9%
74s
12.6%
62s
8.3%
Q2s
48.5%
54s
17.7%
J3s
14.8%
T5s
12.5%
A3
8.3%
T8
48.1%
J3s
17.6%
A2
14.7%
43s
12.4%
92s
8.3%
Q5
48.1%
22
17.6%
95s
14.6%
K7
12.4%
J8
8.3%
J5s
47.9%
95s
17.4%
J2s
14.5%
T4s
12.3%
T5s
17.4%
T5s
14.5%
64s
17.4%
53s
14.4%
J2s
17.2%
50% - 55%
of
Hands
K2
47.8%
87
17.2%
K6
14.3%
A2
12.3%
K8
8.2%
J7
47.7%
97
17.1%
74s
14.3%
T3s
12.1%
A6
8.1%
97s
47.2%
K5
17.1%
T4s
14.3%
63s
12.1%
87
8.1%
J4s
46.9%
Q7
17.1%
87
14.1%
84s
12%
Q8
8.1%
T6s
46.9%
T7
17%
T3s
14%
T2s
11.9%
83s
8%
Q4
46.8%
T4s
17%
97
13.9%
87
11.9%
82s
8%
J3s
46.1%
43s
13.9%
52s
11.8%
A2
7.9%
Q3
46.1%
84s
13.7%
K6
11.7%
T7
13.7%
97
11.7%
T2s
13.7%
42s
11.6%
55% - 60%
of
Hands
T7
46%
J7
16.8%
63s
13.6%
94s
11.6%
97
7.8%
J6
45.7%
74s
16.8%
Q7
13.6%
93s
11.4%
72s
7.8%
J2s
45.6%
53s
16.7%
K5
13.6%
73s
11.4%
76
7.7%
98
45.6%
T3s
16.6%
J7
13.5%
T7
11.4%
K7
7.6%
87s
45.4%
K4
16.5%
94s
13.4%
92s
11.2%
65
7.3%
96s
45.4%
Q6
16.3%
K4
13.2%
K5
11.2%
T7
7.3%
Q2
45.3%
T2s
16.2%
52s
13.2%
Q7
11.1%
T5s
45%
84s
16.2%
93s
13.1%
32s
11.1%
94s
16%
J7
11.1%
60% - 65%
of
Hands
J5
44.9%
K3
16%
76
13%
76
11.1%
86
7.3%
97
44.3%
43s
15.9%
42s
13%
62s
10.9%
K6
7.2%
T4s
44.2%
63s
15.8%
73s
12.9%
83s
10.9%
54
7.2%
86s
44%
76
15.8%
Q6
12.9%
K4
10.8%
K5
6.9%
J4
43.8%
93s
15.7%
92s
12.8%
82s
10.7%
75
6.9%
T6
43.7%
86
15.6%
K3
12.8%
86
10.7%
J7
6.9%
T3s
43.4%
Q5
15.5%
86
12.7%
K3
10.6%
95s
43.3%
K2
15.5%
83s
12.5%
65% - 70%
of
Hands
J3
42.9%
92s
15.3%
K2
12.5%
Q6
10.5%
Q7
6.8%
T2s
42.8%
73s
15.3%
32s
12.5%
72s
10.4%
K4
6.8%
76s
42.7%
52s
15.2%
82s
12.3%
65
10.4%
K3
6.7%
87
42.4%
96
15.2%
62s
12.3%
K2
10.4%
64
6.7%
J2
42.2%
T6
15%
Q5
12.3%
96
10.1%
K2
6.6%
85s
42.2%
Q4
15%
96
12.2%
Q5
10%
96
42.2%
J6
14.9%
65
12.1%
T5
41.8%
83s
14.9%
T6
11.9%
94s
41.4%
42s
14.9%
70% - 75%
of
Hands
75s
41.1%
65
14.7%
Q4
11.9%
54
10%
96
6.6%
86
41%
82s
14.5%
72s
11.9%
75
9.9%
53
6.5%
T4
40.9%
Q3
14.5%
75
11.8%
T6
9.8%
Q6
6.4%
93s
40.9%
62s
14.4%
J6
11.8%
Q4
9.7%
85
6.1%
92s
40.1%
75
14.4%
54
11.6%
J6
9.6%
Q5
6.1%
T3
40.1%
J5
14.3%
Q3
11.5%
Q3
9.5%
T6
6.1%
84s
40%
32s
14.3%
65s
40%
75% - 80%
of
Hands
95
40%
Q2
14.1%
J5
11.3%
64
9.4%
43
6.1%
76
39.4%
72s
13.9%
Q2
11.2%
85
9.3%
Q4
6%
T2
39.3%
54
13.9%
85
11.1%
Q2
9.2%
Q3
5.9%
74s
39.2%
85
13.8%
64
11%
J5
9.1%
74
5.9%
85
38.7%
J4
13.8%
J4
10.8%
53
9%
Q2
5.8%
64s
38.7%
64
13.4%
83s
38.3%
54s
38.1%
82s
37.9%
80% - 85%
of
Hands
94
37.9%
95
13.4%
95
10.6%
J4
8.8%
J6
5.8%
75
37.9%
J3
13.3%
J3
10.5%
95
8.7%
63
5.7%
93
37.4%
T5
13.3%
53
10.5%
74
8.6%
J5
5.5%
73s
37.3%
T4
12.8%
T5
10.4%
J3
8.6%
52
5.5%
63s
37%
J2
12.8%
74
10.3%
43
8.5%
95
5.5%
53s
36.9%
74
12.7%
J2
10.1%
T5
8.4%
J4
5.4%
65
36.8%
92
36.6%
85% - 90%
of
Hands
84
36.5%
53
12.6%
T4
10%
J2
8.3%
42
5.4%
72s
35.7%
T3
12.4%
43
10%
T4
8.1%
J3
5.3%
74
35.6%
84
12.1%
T3
9.7%
63
8.1%
J2
5.2%
43s
35.4%
43
12%
84
9.6%
84
8%
84
5.1%
52s
35.2%
T2
11.9%
63
9.6%
T3
7.9%
T5
5.1%
64
35.2%
62s
35%
54
34.9%
90% - 95%
of
Hands
83
34.6%
94
11.8%
T2
9.4%
52
7.8%
32
5%
42s
34.1%
63
11.8%
94
9.2%
T2
7.6%
T4
4.9%
82
34.1%
93
11.4%
52
9.1%
42
7.6%
73
4.9%
73
33.6%
73
11.1%
93
8.9%
94
7.5%
T3
4.8%
53
33.3%
52
11.1%
73
8.9%
73
7.4%
T2
4.8%
63
33.1%
92
11%
42
8.8%
93
7.2%
62
4.6%
32s
33.1%
95% - 100%
of
Hands
43
32.1%
42
10.7%
92
8.6%
32
7.1%
94
4.5%
72
31.7%
83
10.7%
32
8.3%
92
7%
93
4.4%
52
31.3%
82
10.2%
83
8.3%
62
6.9%
92
4.4%
62
31%
62
10.2%
62
8.2%
83
6.8%
83
4.2%
42
30.4%
32
10.1%
82
8%
82
6.6%
82
4.1%
32
29.2%
72
9.7%
72
7.6%
72
6.2%
72
4%

Saturday, September 24, 2005

Pre-Flop Rankings (no one folds)

This table was generated by dealing over 50 million games of Texas Hold 'Em Poker. No player folded, and the winner's hand was tabulated. The 169 hands were then sorted by winning percentage.

Note that there are 3 different "types" of starting hands: a pair, two different cards of the same suit, and two different cards of different suits. You are 1.5 times more likely to recieve a specific pair than two specific suited cards. You are twice as likely to recieve two specific unsuited cards as you are a specific pair. As a result, the "top 5% of hands" may contain a different number of actual hands depending on whether the top 5% consists of pairs or different suited cards.

Please let me know if you have any questions regarding this table.

Table of Pre-Flop Hand Rankings Assuming All Players Show
2 Handed5 Handed6 Handed7 Handed10 Handed
Top
5%
of
Hands
AA
AA
AA
AA
AA
KK
KK
KK
KK
KK
QQ
QQ
QQ
QQ
QQ
JJ
JJ
JJ
JJ
AKs
TT
TT
AKs
AKs
JJ
99
AKs
TT
AQs
AQs
88
AQs
AQs
TT
KQs
AKs
99
KQs
KQs
AJs
77
KQs
AK
AK
TT
AQs
AK
AJs
AJs
KJs
AJs
AJs
99
KJs
AK
QJs
QJs
5% - 10%
of
Hands
AK
KJs
KJs
99
ATs
ATs
ATs
QJs
ATs
KTs
AQ
AQ
ATs
KTs
QTs
AJ
QJs
AQ
AQ
JTs
66
88
KTs
QTs
99
KQs
KTs
QTs
JTs
AQ
AT
QTs
KQ
KQ
A9s
KJs
KQ
JTs
88
88
A9s
AJ
88
AJ
KQ
JTs
AJ
K9s
T9s
10% - 15%
of
Hands
KTs
A9s
A9s
A9s
J9s
A8s
KJ
KJ
KJ
A8s
KJ
77
K9s
K9s
Q9s
A9
AT
QJ
A8s
77
55
K9s
AT
Q9s
AJ
A7s
A8s
A8s
J9s
A5s
KQ
QJ
77
QJ
A7s
K9s
Q9s
Q9s
T9s
KJ
QJs
J9s
AT
A4s
T9s
77
A3s
66
15% - 20%
of
Hands
KT
KT
KT
A7s
QJ
QTs
J9s
A7s
KT
A6s
A8
T9s
QT
A5s
A2s
A6s
QT
A5s
QT
T8s
A5s
A7s
JT
K8s
K8s
A7
66
K8s
JT
98s
K8s
A5s
A4s
A4s
J8s
A4s
JT
A6s
A6s
Q8s
Q9s
K8s
66
A3s
55
K9
A6s
A3s
T8s
AT
A4s
44
Q8s
20% - 25%
of
Hands
QJ
A3s
T8s
66
KT
QT
A9
Q8s
A2s
K7s
A3s
T8s
A2s
Q8s
22
JTs
K7s
J8s
J8s
33
44
J8s
K7s
98s
QT
K7s
A2s
98s
K7s
JT
A2s
98s
A9
K6s
87s
A6
K9
K6s
55
K6s
55
55
87s
97s
K6s
K9
A9
K5s
K5s
97s
76s
87s
K5s
T7s
Q7s
25% - 30%
of
Hands
A5
A8
97s
K4s
T7s
Q8s
Q9
Q7s
J7s
K4s
K6s
J9
Q9
K9
K3s
K8
K5s
J9
44
K2s
A4
T9
T7s
K3s
86s
Q9
Q7s
T9
T9
Q7s
J9s
97s
A8
Q9
65s
K5s
T7s
K4s
J9
J7s
J7s
J7s
54s
87s
75s
K4s
Q6s
96s
Q5s
64s
Q4s
Q3s
30% - 35%
of
Hands
A3
A7
K3s
K2s
53s
JT
Q6s
Q6s
76s
T9
K7
K3s
44
Q6s
Q2s
Q7s
44
K2s
86s
T6s
K4s
A5
76s
A8
A9
J8s
K2s
86s
33
85s
33
Q5s
Q5s
Q5s
J6s
A2
K8
A7
65s
J9
T9s
76s
96s
96s
K9
A5
22
Q4s
Q4s
33
75s
T6s
Q3s
35% - 40%
of
Hands
K6
A6
T6s
J6s
J5s
K3s
86s
K8
54s
43s
Q8
A4
65s
A7
74s
Q6s
Q4s
Q3s
Q2s
Q9
J9
Q8
J6s
A5
J4s
K2s
T8
75s
J5s
J3s
K5
96s
T8
64s
95s
Q5s
J6s
A4
85s
J2s
J7s
T8
63s
T8s
A8
52s
T5s
42s
40% - 45%
of
Hands
Q7
J8
A6
K8
T4s
J8
T6s
Q2s
J4s
84s
K4
A3
J5s
A4
T3s
Q4s
98
Q8
98
T2s
T9
Q3s
J8
53s
98
Q3s
33
98
A6
T8
K3
K7
54s
J3s
32s
J5s
22
Q8
A5
65s
73s
75s
45% - 50%
of
Hands
22
Q2s
A3
J8
A7
Q6
A2
85s
A3
94s
T7s
J4s
J4s
95s
A4
J6s
K6
K7
J2s
93s
98s
85s
64s
74s
62s
Q2s
54s
J3s
T5s
A3
T8
J3s
A2
43s
92s
Q5
22
95s
K7
J8
J5s
95s
J2s
T4s
T5s
T5s
64s
53s
J2s
50% - 55%
of
Hands
K2
87
K6
A2
K8
J7
97
74s
T3s
A6
97s
K5
T4s
63s
87
J4s
Q7
87
84s
Q8
T6s
T7
T3s
T2s
83s
Q4
T4s
97
87
82s
J3s
43s
52s
A2
Q3
84s
K6
T7
97
T2s
42s
55% - 60%
of
Hands
T7
J7
63s
94s
97
J6
74s
Q7
93s
72s
J2s
53s
K5
73s
76
98
T3s
J7
T7
K7
87s
K4
94s
92s
65
96s
Q6
K4
K5
T7
Q2
T2s
52s
Q7
T5s
84s
93s
32s
94s
J7
60% - 65%
of
Hands
J5
K3
76
76
86
97
43s
42s
62s
K6
T4s
63s
73s
83s
54
86s
76
Q6
K4
K5
J4
93s
92s
82s
75
T6
86
K3
86
J7
T3s
Q5
86
K3
95s
K2
83s
65% - 70%
of
Hands
J3
92s
K2
Q6
Q7
T2s
73s
32s
72s
K4
76s
52s
82s
65
K3
87
96
62s
K2
64
J2
T6
Q5
96
K2
85s
Q4
96
Q5
96
J6
65
T5
83s
T6
94s
42s
70% - 75%
of
Hands
75s
65
Q4
54
96
86
82s
72s
75
53
T4
Q3
75
T6
Q6
93s
62s
J6
Q4
85
92s
75
54
J6
Q5
T3
J5
Q3
Q3
T6
84s
32s
65s
75% - 80%
of
Hands
95
Q2
J5
64
43
76
72s
Q2
85
Q4
T2
54
85
Q2
Q3
74s
85
64
J5
74
85
J4
J4
53
Q2
64s
64
83s
54s
82s
80% - 85%
of
Hands
94
95
95
J4
J6
75
J3
J3
95
63
93
T5
53
74
J5
73s
T4
T5
J3
52
63s
J2
74
43
95
53s
74
J2
T5
J4
65
92
85% - 90%
of
Hands
84
53
T4
J2
42
72s
T3
43
T4
J3
74
84
T3
63
J2
43s
43
84
84
84
52s
T2
63
T3
T5
64
62s
54
90% - 95%
of
Hands
83
94
T2
52
32
42s
63
94
T2
T4
82
93
52
42
73
73
73
93
94
T3
53
52
73
73
T2
63
92
42
93
62
32s
95% - 100%
of
Hands
43
42
92
32
94
72
83
32
92
93
52
82
83
62
92
62
62
62
83
83
42
32
82
82
82
32
72
72
72
72

Thursday, September 22, 2005

Why I'm Writing This Blog

Texas Hold 'Em Poker is essentially a wagering game with incomplete information. Information is incomplete in the simple sense that you do not know your opponents' cards, and in the more complicated sense that you often do not know what to do with the information at hand (i.e. is that a tell, or does he have a really itchy nose?)

For the novice, the meaning of the cards themselves is often unclear as well. In this variety of poker, there are 169 different 2-card starting hands with which you can begin. Anyone can tell you that AA is the best you can start with, and 72 unsuited is probably the worst. The worth of all those cards in between is less clear however.

A good player will tell you that their worth has as much - if not more - to do with your position at the table, the cards your opponents will play, the type of players your opponents are, and even the last hand that was dealt as it does the cards themselves. This, however, seems to be the same as saying "I don't like the question you are asking - ask the right one, and maybe I'll have an answer for you."

My goal in writing this blog is to try to build up an intuition for Texas Hold 'Em by running a series of Monte Carlo simulations. I believe that if I start with simple - even foolish - questions and gradually make them more complicated I will see directly the importance of position, opponents' card choice and the myriad other factors going into optimal wagering. I'm writing this as a blog with the hopes that other people who have similar interests in math and poker will contribute feedback on current simulations and ideas of what to simulate next.

My first question is: if the game simply involved dealing cards, and there was no opportunity for anyone to fold (ie no wagering), which starting hands would win more often?